Don't worry about the datestamp. The awards are still a good twelve hours away and for the first time in the history of television (...er) they are actually airing here live! Usually we have to wait until 8.30 and by that stage I've had to avoid the winners with varying levels of success. Although nothing will ever trump the time when the network spoiled Halle Berry's Best Actress win mere minutes before it aired. Silly goats.
I am wondering what the show will bring up. I so hope Hugh Jackman doesn't embarrass himself. And I hope they don't throw him under the bus when the ratings continue to slide further into the gutter. Especially since the reason is quite obvious:
The Dark Knight. But enough people have discussed that at length so I'm not going to. Let's just get this over and done with, okay.
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog MillionairWILL WIN:
Slumdog MillionaireSHOULD WIN:
MilkSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER:
Frozen RiverBEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog MillionaireWILL WIN: Danny Boyle,
Slumdog MillionaireSHOULD WIN: Gus Van Sant,
MilkSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Courtney Hunt,
Frozen RiverBEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The WrestlerWILL WIN: Sean Penn,
MilkSHOULD WIN: Sean Penn,
MilkSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Colin Farrell,
In BrugesI'm guessing Penn because a) he plays a real person and b) Rourke reminds me of Nick Nolte in 1998. Troubled actor in career best turn loses out to vibrant socially important piece. In this case I actually think Penn deserves it. Alas, I wasn't around for Rourke's career rise and fall so his comeback isn't really that important to me. Hence, a whole lot of the oomph of his campaign is lost on me.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The ReaderWILL WIN: Kate Winslet,
The ReaderSHOULD WIN: Melissa Leo,
Frozen RiverSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Anna Faris,
The House Bunny (er, I am
not joking)
Yet again Kate Winslet gives an excellent performance... and yet there is just someone better above her, which is the way it has been for every one of her six nominations except for one. Although in that one year - 2004 for
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - she wouldn't win my Gold UMA. Poor Kate.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary RoadWILL WIN: Heath Ledger,
The Dark KnightSHOULD WIN: Heath Ledger,
The Dark KnightSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: James Franco and Emile Hirsch,
MilkI feel sorry for whoever it is that, in some travesty, steals this statue away from Ledger. That. Would. Be. Awkward.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The WrestlerWILL WIN: Penelope Cruz,
Vicky Cristina BarcelonaSHOULD WIN: Penelope Cruz,
Vicky Cristina BarcelonaSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Lena Olin,
The ReaderPLEASE, Academy! Give the statue to Pene. It's so rare that you get the chance to give an Oscar to somebody who is not only at the true peak of their career, but also for a role that is totally deserving and one that nobody would begrudge. Don't make the same mistake with Penelope that you have done with so many and take her for granted by giving her nominations and then wondering why, in twenty years, why she doesn't have a statue.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonough, In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon & Pete Docter, Wall-EWILL WIN:
Wall-ESHOULD WIN: umm... they're all so good! I'll be happy with any.
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Woody Allen,
Vicky Cristina BarcelonaI'm choosing
Wall-E... no real reason as to why I think it'll trump
Milk, just... 'cause.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth & Robin Swicord, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
David Hare, The Reader
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog MillionaireWILL WIN: Simon Beaufoy,
Slumdog MillionaireSHOULD WIN: David Hare,
The ReaderSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Gus Van Sant,
Paranoid ParkBEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Tom Stern, Changeling
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Chris Menges & Roger Deakins, The Reader
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog MillionaireWILL WIN: Wally Pfister,
The Dark KnightSHOULD WIN: Wally Pfister,
The Dark KnightSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Mandy Walker,
AustraliaIt is foolhardy to not predict
Slumdog in everything it's nominated for, but... I just don't want to.
BEST ART DIRECTION
James J. Murakami (art director); Gary Fettis (set decorator), Changeling
Donald Graham Burt (art director); Victor J. Zolfo (set decorator), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Nathan Crowley (art director); Peter Lando (set decorator), The Dark Knight
Michael Carlin (I) (art director); Rebecca Alleway (set decorator), The Duchess
Kristi Zea (art director); Debra Schutt (set decorator), Revolutionary RoadWILL WIN:
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonSHOULD WIN:
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Catherine Martin,
Speed RacerBEST COSTUME DESIGN
Catherine Martin, Australia
Jacqueline West, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Michael O'Connor, The Duchess
Danny Glicker, Milk
Albert Wolsky, Revolutionary RoadWILL WIN: Jacqueline West,
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonSHOULD WIN: Catherine Martin,
AustraliaSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Patricia Field,
Sex and the City: The MovieI'm going with
Button over the more traditional
Duchess duds. I just think voters will think the movie with 13 nominations probably deserves this more than the movie whose costumes have been rewarded the past two years under different names (
Marie Antoinette and
Elizabeth: The Golden Age). Plus, it sorta does deserve it. Would be great if they could pull a
Marie Antoinette and give the prize to a movie that nobody apparently likes (hah!) in the form of
Australia.
BEST EDITING
Richard King, The Dark Knight
Lee Smith, The Dark Knight
Mike Hill & Daniel Hanley, Frost/Nixon
Elliot Graham, Milk
Chris Dickins, Slumdog MillionaireWILL WIN: Chris Dickins,
Slumdog MillionaireSHOULD WIN: Elliot Graham,
MilkSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: I'm content with this group. The four contenders I would choose to possibly be inserted in were not eligible.
BEST MAKE-UP
Greg Cannom, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Caglione Jr & Conor O'Sullivan, The Dark Knight
Mike Elizalde & Thomas Floutz, Hellboy 2: The Golden ArmyWILL WIN:
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonSHOULD WIN: I'll say
The Dark KnightSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER:
The WrestlerBEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard, Defiance
Danny Elfman, Milk
AR Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, Wall-EWILL WIN: AR Rahman,
Slumdog MillionaireSHOULD WIN: Thomas Newman,
Wall-ESHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Nico Muhly,
The ReaderBEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Down to Earth", Wall-E
"Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
"O...Saya", Slumdog MillionaireWILL WIN: "Jai Ho"
SHOULD WIN: "O... Saya"
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: "The Wrestler",
The Wrestler - duh
BEST SOUND MIXING
David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce & Mark Weingarten, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg & Gary Rizzo, The Dark Knight
Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke & Resul Pookutty, Slumdog Millionaire
Tom Myers, Michael Semanick & Ben Burtt, Wall-E
Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño & Petr Forejt, WantedWILL WIN:
Slumdog MillionaireSHOULD WIN:
Wall-ESHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER:
Paranoid ParkI had totally forgotten
Wanted had ever been released, let alone was a two-time Oscar nominee.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Richard King, The Dark Knight
Frank E. Eulner & Christopher Boyes, Iron Man
Tom Sayers, Slumdog Millionaire
Ben Burtt & Matthew Wood, Wall-E
Wylie Stateman, WantedWILL WIN:
Wall-ESHOULD WIN:
Wall-ESHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER:
AustraliaBEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton & Craig Barron, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Timothy Webber & Paul J. Franklin, The Dark Knight
John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick & Shane Mahan, Iron ManWILL WIN:
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonSHOULD WIN:
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonSHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER:
Speed RacerIsn't it the rule that if there is a Best Picture contender (ie; a movie defined as "good") then it wins this category? I think so. AND WHERE IS
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE? :P
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung-Fu Panda
Wall-EWILL WIN:
Wall-ESHOULD WIN:
Wall-ESHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: N/A
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhoff Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Ravanche (Australia)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)WILL WIN:
The Class (but
Waltz with Bashir is the "obvious" choice)
SHOULD WIN: N/A
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER:
Up the YangtzeBEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man On Wire
Trouble the WaterWILL WIN:
Man on WireSHOULD WIN: N/A
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER:
Up the YangtzeBEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306WILL WIN:
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Maison en petits cubes, La
Ubornaya istoriya - lyubovnaya istoriya
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way UpWILL WIN:
Maison en petits cubes, LaBEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Auf der Strecke
Manon sur le bitume
New Boy
Grisen
SpielzeuglandWILL WIN: Spielzeugland
~-~And that's that. We'll see how I go later today, shall we?