Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Oscar Predictions! etc

These days it seems everybody and their dog does Oscar nomination predictions. Naturally, I thought I would throw my hat into the ring and take a stab at what Academy President Tom Sherak and Anne Hathaway will announce at around Midnight Australian Eastern Standard Time (or about 12hrs ago IN THE PAST if you live in Los Angeles). Will they really give Best Picture nominations to movies such as Invictus, The Blind Side or The Messenger, would could conceivable get only one extra nominations apiece. Or what about The Hangover or It's Complicated, which could get only one nomination period? What of movies like Julie & Julia or An Education, which seem like are in the #6 or #7 positions in a lot of categories? Will they get a bump up?

Do we really care? Some people will say they don't, but of course they will talk about them ad nauseam because no matter what they say they really do care.

BEST PICTURE
Avatar
An Education
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air


BEST DIRECTOR
Lone Scherfig, An Education
James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Yes, I've decided to go with Scherfig instead of Lee Daniels. I'm 99% sure I'm going to wrong on that count, but I need a surprise or two to make this thing interesting and two female nominees in one year seems like something the Academy might like to do. Blah.

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

I've gone out on a limb and predicted Tucci for Julie & Julia instead of The Lovely Bones. It's probably idiotic of me to do so, but either way I'm still predicting Tucci. And, hey, I totally called that Kate Winslet-being-nominated-in-lead-for-The-Reader thing last year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire

Kruger! Cotillard! I don't know! I threw in Kruger because she seems stronger to me at the moment than Julianne Moore, Samantha Morton or her co-star Melanie Laurant. I went with Cotillard because I'm probably a bit deranged and being in a "bad" movie doesn't necessarily disqualify you (why Tucci for Lovely Bones playing a favourite "type" - a villain - and not Cotillard for Nine playing a favourite "type - the long-suffering wife?)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Scott Neustadter & Michael H Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson, Up

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nick Hornby, An Education
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9
Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia
Damien Paul, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Oh how I wish/hope/pray that Wes Anderson and Noah Baumbach could somehow steal a nomination for Fantastic Mr Fox (and, given then D9 and J&J are the two weakest here I would actually like District 9 to lose out since I think Julie & Julia had the better screenplay, just sayin'...)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mauro Fiore, Avatar
Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker
Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds
Dion Beebe, Nine
Christian Berger, The White Ribbon


BEST ART DIRECTION
Rick Carter & Richard Stronberg, Avatar
Philip Ivey, District 9
Davis Wasco, Inglourious Basterds
Sarah Greenwood, Sherlock Holmes
Jess Gonchor, A Serious Man

I wasn't going to go with District 9, but outside of the Effects/Sound categories, Art Direction is the friendliest category for science fiction films and because Moon is, sadly, nowhere to be seen I've decided to place D9 instead of more traditional contenders like Harry Potter or Nine.

BEST EDITING
John Refoua & Stephen Rivkin, Avatar
Julian Clark, District 9
Chris Innis & Bob Murawski, The Hurt Locker
Sally Menke, Inglourious Basterds
Dana E Glauberman, Up in the Air

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Odile Dicks-Mireaux, An Education
Janet Paterson, Bright Star
Catherine Leterrier, Coco Avant Chanel
Colleen Atwood, Nine
Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria

I know I'm meant to be predicting Sherlock Holmes or something like that, but I'm hedging my bets on An Education, Bright Star and Coco to impress the costume branch the most.

BEST MAKE-UP
District 9
Star Trek
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
2012
Avatar
District 9

I know I'm meant to have Star Trek here instead of 2012, but I can't help but see an I, Robot2012 in the way that they're big and shiny and obvious and the sort that you go "of course it'll be nominated!" and maybe this effects branch will react as negatively to Trek's lens flares as I.
type of nomination here for

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
James Horner, Avatar
Alexandre Desplat, Coco Avant Chanel
Marvin Hamlisch, The Informant!
Hans Zimmer, Sherlock Holmes
Michael Giacchino, Up

I didn't like Star Trek at all, but I did love the score. Naturally, I am predicting it to miss here (I have probably several underestimated that movie, haven't I? Most assuredly). Following on in the Desplat tradition, Alexandre will be nominated for the weaker of two scores (the better one being Fantastic Mr Fox). Remember though, Coco Avant Chanel is the highest-grossing foreign language film of 2009!

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart
"Cinema Italiano", Nine
"Take it All", Nine
"Down in New Orleans", The Princess and the Frog
"All is Love", Where the Wild Things Are

BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen
Up


BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Argentina, The Secret in Their Eyes
Australia, Samson & Delilah
France, A Prophet
Germany, The White Ribbon
The Netherlands, Winter in Wartime

I really should put Israel's Ajami in there, but I have to predict Samson & Delilah, I just have to. I so hope I get to hear Quentin Tarantino and Pedro Almodovar read it out as a nomination on Oscar night.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
The Beaches of Agnes
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Mugabe and the White African
Valentino: The Last Emperor

And that's that folks. We'll see how I went - probably very badly when it comes to the left-of-centre picks - in the morning.

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