Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Year in Advance Oscar Predictions

Oh yes! I generally start thinking about these when the current race gets predictable and boring. Needless to say, the possibilities for 2010 have already crossed my mind. Major props yet again to Kris at InContention for providing a veritable smorgasbord of contenders. And while many of my predictions mirror his, I'm not merely copying.

As you'll notice I am not predicting Martin Scorsese's Shutter Island to be a Best Picture nominee. And that's because if it does get a nomination then that will be four straight Best Picture nominees for the man and not even Clint Eastwood (who I am predicting - *sigh*) has achieved that. Not sure who has, if anyone. Probably someone like John Ford "back in the day".

I really want to be brave and predict Pixar's latest, Up, for Best Picture. Sort of as a culmination of the past two years of extensive buzz added to the fact Up is about an old codger like half of the Academy and it is apparently quite moving and maybe the old farts who deemed a movie about a robot not worthy will actually respond to this one better. But... then I think that Coraline will win Best Animated Feaure due to it being "very good" (apparently), plus Pixar fatigue and through their love of claymation and, as witnessed by their multiple nominations of Hayao Miyazaki, they like rewarding animators who hit it big before the category was made (Henry Sellick directed The Nightmare Before Christmas after all). So... I decided no.

That's all a very long roundabout way of saying: It's going to be more of the same.


BEST PICTURE
An Education
The Informant
Nine
Taking Woodstock
"Untitled Nelson Mandela Project"


BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
Clint Eastwood, "Untitled Nelson Mandela Project"
Ang Lee, Finding Woodstock
Rob Marshall, Nine
Lone Scherfig, An Education


Normally I'm not one to jump on festival hype bandwagon, but two things make we lean towards An Education and Precious (previously titled Push). The former is a period film so it has a leg up in that department, and it's director - whilst female - is foreign and... well, that helps. Plus, since Jason Reitman's Juno nomination I don't see why it couldn't land here. Also: They love England. As for Precious... I don't know. I'm just thinking that movie will hit it BIG with critics.

Also: After a couple of misses in 2008 will the Academy embrace Clint Eastwood again? Whatever...

BEST ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Informant
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies
Colin Farrell, Ondine or Triage
Morgan Freeman, "Untitled Nelson Mandela Project"
John Malkovich, Disgrace

Am I crazy for not predcting Daniel Day-Lewis? Just like Scorsese, they've nominated him a lot lately. I'm betting his singing won't cut it (just a fraction).

BEST ACTRESS
Brenda Blethyn, London River
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Emily Watson, Within the Whirlwind

Can I just point out that this year's Best Actress category is looking very thin at this early stage and that I fully expect two of these spots to DEFINITELY WITHOUT A DOUBT be given to something we haven't even heard of yet.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Billy Crudup, Public Enemies
Matt Damon, "Untitled Nelson Mandela Movie"
Alfred Molina, An Education
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Road
Max Von Sydow, Shutter Island


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
Emily Mortimer, Shutter Island
Imelda Staunton, Taking Woodstock

It hurt to not include Patricia Clarkson for either Whatever Works (Woody Allen!) or Shutter Island, but... I can see Nine taking two spots and I figured Taking Woodstock had to get something. Plus, I'm on record for both Mortimer and Mo'Nique.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Richard Curtis, The Boat that Rocked
Pedro Almodovar, Broken Embraces (or some other foreign title we haven't heard about yet)
Judd Apatow, Funny People
Rachid Bouchareb, London River
Bob Peterson, Up

Is it odd that I've predicted a movie called London River to get Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay nominations, the same two nominations that Frozen River got this year? FREAKY!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nick Hornby, An Education
Damien Paul, Precious: Based on the Novel by Sapphire
Laeta Kalogridis, Steven Knight, Shutter Island
James Schamus, Taking Woodstock
Anthony Peckham, "Untitled Nelson Mandela Project"

Can Anthony Minghella get a second posthumous Oscar nomination for Nine. I'm currently not betting on it, but it is Harvey Weinstein after all so I'm sure he'll try!


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Stuart Dryburgh, Amelia
Rodrigo Prieto, Broken Embraces
Dion Beebe, Nine
Javier Aguirresarobe, The Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life


BEST ART DIRECTION
Stephanie Carroll & Gordon Sim, Amelia
Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith & Shane Vieau, The Imaginarium of Dr Parnassus
John Myhre & Gordon Sim, Nine
Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer, Sherlock Holmes
David Gropman & Ellen Christiansen, Taking Woodstock

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Janet Patterson, Bright Star
Unknown, Coco Avant Chanel
Monique Prudhomme, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Unknown, Nine
Sandy Powell, The Tempest

Now here is where it gets a bit tricky. I am going on a theory that Colleen Atwood (the seven-time Oscar nominee and two-time winner) is the costume designer for Nine, even though it is not listed on IMDb. Rob Marshall has assembled the same cinematographer and the same art direction crew for his two films, Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha, so I don't know why now would be any different. So that is why I am not predicting Atwood for Public Enemies. Ugh, confused yet? And considering two of Janet Patterson's three Oscar nominations come from Jane Campion films (and all are within the same era) I think she has a great shot. And if you consider that all three of Julie Taymor's movies (that'd be Titus, Frida and Across the Universe) have received costume nominations I think The Tempest has as good a shot as any. Dr Parnassus is a major contender too, I feel.


BEST EDITING
Stephen Mirrione, The Informant
Unknown, Nine
Thelma Schoonmaker, Shutter Island
Tim Squyres, Taking Woodstock
Joel Cox & Gary Roach, "Untitled Nelson Mandela Project"



BEST MAKE-UP
Nine
The Tempest
The Wolf Man




BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, Cheri
Marvin Hamlisch, The Informant
Elliot Goldenthal, Public Enemies
Nick Cave & Warren Ellis, The Road
Michael Giacchino, Up



BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nine
Nine
The Princess and the Frog
The Princess and the Frog
Up



BEST SOUND
Avatar
Green Zone
Nine
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up



BEST SOUND EDITING
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
The Informant
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up




BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen




BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline
Monsters Vs Aliens
Ponyo on the Cliff
The Princess and the Frog
Up



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Canada
France
South Africa
Spain
Switzerland

2 comments:

RC said...

interesting and great predictions.

i starting checking out this years film scene about a month back and began looking at what film adaptatations would come from fiction.

i was not surprised to see many of those books making your list including shutter island, push (precious), cheri, the road etc.

nice work here...i'm ready and interested in a new film year for sure.

i love your line about why the academy would like "up" -- hillarious.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Push has, as you may have guessed, been retitled to Precious. The Based on the Novel by Sapphire is still attached, but I wouldn't be surprised if they even got rid of that. Try and appeal to as many people as possible, I guess, and not come off as typical arthouse wankery.