Sunday, February 22, 2009

Final Oscar Predictions

Don't worry about the datestamp. The awards are still a good twelve hours away and for the first time in the history of television (...er) they are actually airing here live! Usually we have to wait until 8.30 and by that stage I've had to avoid the winners with varying levels of success. Although nothing will ever trump the time when the network spoiled Halle Berry's Best Actress win mere minutes before it aired. Silly goats.

I am wondering what the show will bring up. I so hope Hugh Jackman doesn't embarrass himself. And I hope they don't throw him under the bus when the ratings continue to slide further into the gutter. Especially since the reason is quite obvious: The Dark Knight. But enough people have discussed that at length so I'm not going to. Let's just get this over and done with, okay.

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionair

WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: Milk
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Frozen River

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: Gus Van Sant, Milk
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Courtney Hunt, Frozen River

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

WILL WIN: Sean Penn, Milk
SHOULD WIN: Sean Penn, Milk
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Colin Farrell, In Bruges

I'm guessing Penn because a) he plays a real person and b) Rourke reminds me of Nick Nolte in 1998. Troubled actor in career best turn loses out to vibrant socially important piece. In this case I actually think Penn deserves it. Alas, I wasn't around for Rourke's career rise and fall so his comeback isn't really that important to me. Hence, a whole lot of the oomph of his campaign is lost on me.

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

WILL WIN: Kate Winslet, The Reader
SHOULD WIN: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Anna Faris, The House Bunny (er, I am not joking)

Yet again Kate Winslet gives an excellent performance... and yet there is just someone better above her, which is the way it has been for every one of her six nominations except for one. Although in that one year - 2004 for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - she wouldn't win my Gold UMA. Poor Kate.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

WILL WIN: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
SHOULD WIN: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: James Franco and Emile Hirsch, Milk

I feel sorry for whoever it is that, in some travesty, steals this statue away from Ledger. That. Would. Be. Awkward.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

WILL WIN: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
SHOULD WIN: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Lena Olin, The Reader

PLEASE, Academy! Give the statue to Pene. It's so rare that you get the chance to give an Oscar to somebody who is not only at the true peak of their career, but also for a role that is totally deserving and one that nobody would begrudge. Don't make the same mistake with Penelope that you have done with so many and take her for granted by giving her nominations and then wondering why, in twenty years, why she doesn't have a statue.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonough, In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon & Pete Docter, Wall-E

WILL WIN: Wall-E
SHOULD WIN: umm... they're all so good! I'll be happy with any.
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

I'm choosing Wall-E... no real reason as to why I think it'll trump Milk, just... 'cause.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth & Robin Swicord, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
David Hare, The Reader
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: David Hare, The Reader
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Gus Van Sant, Paranoid Park

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Tom Stern, Changeling
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Chris Menges & Roger Deakins, The Reader
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
SHOULD WIN: Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Mandy Walker, Australia

It is foolhardy to not predict Slumdog in everything it's nominated for, but... I just don't want to.

BEST ART DIRECTION
James J. Murakami (art director); Gary Fettis (set decorator), Changeling
Donald Graham Burt (art director); Victor J. Zolfo (set decorator), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Nathan Crowley (art director); Peter Lando (set decorator), The Dark Knight
Michael Carlin (I) (art director); Rebecca Alleway (set decorator), The Duchess
Kristi Zea (art director); Debra Schutt (set decorator), Revolutionary Road

WILL WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULD WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Catherine Martin, Speed Racer

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Catherine Martin, Australia
Jacqueline West, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Michael O'Connor, The Duchess
Danny Glicker, Milk
Albert Wolsky, Revolutionary Road

WILL WIN: Jacqueline West, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULD WIN: Catherine Martin, Australia
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Patricia Field, Sex and the City: The Movie

I'm going with Button over the more traditional Duchess duds. I just think voters will think the movie with 13 nominations probably deserves this more than the movie whose costumes have been rewarded the past two years under different names (Marie Antoinette and Elizabeth: The Golden Age). Plus, it sorta does deserve it. Would be great if they could pull a Marie Antoinette and give the prize to a movie that nobody apparently likes (hah!) in the form of Australia.

BEST EDITING
Richard King, The Dark Knight
Lee Smith, The Dark Knight
Mike Hill & Daniel Hanley, Frost/Nixon
Elliot Graham, Milk
Chris Dickins, Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Chris Dickins, Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: Elliot Graham, Milk
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: I'm content with this group. The four contenders I would choose to possibly be inserted in were not eligible.

BEST MAKE-UP
Greg Cannom, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Caglione Jr & Conor O'Sullivan, The Dark Knight
Mike Elizalde & Thomas Floutz, Hellboy 2: The Golden Army

WILL WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULD WIN: I'll say The Dark Knight
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: The Wrestler

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard, Defiance
Danny Elfman, Milk
AR Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, Wall-E

WILL WIN: AR Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: Thomas Newman, Wall-E
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Nico Muhly, The Reader

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Down to Earth", Wall-E
"Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
"O...Saya", Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: "Jai Ho"
SHOULD WIN: "O... Saya"
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: "The Wrestler", The Wrestler - duh

BEST SOUND MIXING
David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce & Mark Weingarten, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg & Gary Rizzo, The Dark Knight
Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke & Resul Pookutty, Slumdog Millionaire
Tom Myers, Michael Semanick & Ben Burtt, Wall-E
Chris Jenkins, Frank A. MontaƱo & Petr Forejt, Wanted

WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: Wall-E
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Paranoid Park

I had totally forgotten Wanted had ever been released, let alone was a two-time Oscar nominee.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Richard King, The Dark Knight
Frank E. Eulner & Christopher Boyes, Iron Man
Tom Sayers, Slumdog Millionaire
Ben Burtt & Matthew Wood, Wall-E
Wylie Stateman, Wanted

WILL WIN: Wall-E
SHOULD WIN: Wall-E
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Australia

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton & Craig Barron, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Timothy Webber & Paul J. Franklin, The Dark Knight
John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick & Shane Mahan, Iron Man

WILL WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULD WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Speed Racer

Isn't it the rule that if there is a Best Picture contender (ie; a movie defined as "good") then it wins this category? I think so. AND WHERE IS SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE? :P

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung-Fu Panda
Wall-E

WILL WIN: Wall-E
SHOULD WIN: Wall-E
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: N/A

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhoff Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Ravanche (Australia)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

WILL WIN: The Class (but Waltz with Bashir is the "obvious" choice)
SHOULD WIN: N/A
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Up the Yangtze

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man On Wire
Trouble the Water

WILL WIN: Man on Wire
SHOULD WIN: N/A
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER: Up the Yangtze

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306

WILL WIN: The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Maison en petits cubes, La
Ubornaya istoriya - lyubovnaya istoriya
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

WILL WIN: Maison en petits cubes, La

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Auf der Strecke
Manon sur le bitume
New Boy
Grisen
Spielzeugland

WILL WIN: Spielzeugland

~-~

And that's that. We'll see how I go later today, shall we?

1 comment:

Adem With An E said...

I am all for a Pene-win. That woman has been setting my heart on fire via film for many-a-year.