Sunday, February 24, 2008

2008 Academy Award Predictions

Like every other blog out there with even a remote passing interest in Hollywood Mecha, I too am providing my predictions for tomorrow's Academy Awards. Tres excited, aren't you? There are very good movies nominated with barely a stinker in the bunch, although I'm not quite as enamoured with certain titles as most others - predominantly There Will Be Blood and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, minor quibble. I think they're great movies, but not quite great enough. Meh. MOVING ON! I totally predict (predictions about my predictions, *world implodes*) that I'm going to get many of these wrongs, which is a good thing because it means there's competition. yay for that.

Let's start with a few fun things though, shall we?

MOST OBVIOUS JOKE:

Either some sort of allegory between the movies and the American election. "Juno is like Hilary Clinton!" or some such. OR because Jon Stewart is hosting "Three Six Mafia - One. Martin Scorsese - ONE!!!" I almost expect it to be the first thing out of Stewart's mouth, actually.

BEST DRESSED

I have a feeling that Amy Ryan will wow. I tend to be really fond of people who aren't in the general consensus of who the best dressed is. People like Shohreh Aghdashloo, Marcia Gay Harden and Diane Lane have been my best dressed in the past and so I'm going with Ryan. Or Marion Cotillard as long as she doesn't replicate her Flying Nun creation of the BAFTAs. My favourite last year was Gwyneth Paltrow after years of bad fashion and before that was Keira Knightley, so maybe the "movie star" trend will continue. Maybe Nicole?

WORST DRESSED

People will say Tilda Swinton purely because she wears a goat on her face, but I'm sure whatever she attaches to her outfit she'll look stunning. So my choice for worst dressed is gonna be one of the nominated costume designers (as usual) or Marion Cotillard as long as she replicates her Flying Nun creation of the BAFTAs.

BEST SPEECH IN A CATEGORY "NOBODY CARES ABOUT"

If he wins then definitely Susan Lucci Kevin O'Connell.


Worst Speech

The visual effects people. They never make good speeches. And because there's so many of them they never get to finish and it's always awkward.

PERSON MOST LIKELY TO OFFEND A CELEBRITY OR AN ENTIRE MINORITY*

Excluding Jon Stewart, of course. I'm gonna say whoever wins Best Documentary. Or Julie Christie.

Now on to the good stuff!


BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Predicted Winner: No Country for Old Men
My Vote: No Country for Old Men

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will be Blood
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Predicted Winner: The Coen Bros
My Vote: The Coen Bros

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Predicted Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
My Vote: Daniel Day-Lewis

I, unfortunately, have not seen Jones or Mortensen's work.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
The Lovely Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Predicted Winner: Julie Christie
My Vote: Julie Christie

I think Christie will eke this win out, but a Cotillard win wouldn't surprise me in the slightest (not that I would like it, at least her speech might be a nice consilation), although if there's an "upset" I hope it is Linney (whose film hasn't been released here yet) or Page.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Predicted Winner: Javier Bardem
My Vote: Javier Bardem

Although I think Affleck gave the better performance, I think his placement here is completely wrong.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saiorse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Predicted Winner: Ruby Dee Tilda Swinton Cate Blanchett Saiorse Ronan Ruby Dee Amy Ryan Cate Blanchett Tilda Swinton Amy Ryan
My Vote: Tilda Swinton

And so we come to it. The most contentious major category in quite a while. There is a legitimate possibility that either of the five nominees could win. When was the last time that happened in one of the acting categories? I have put down every single of the nominees at my predicted winner at one time or another. I eventually decided on Amy Ryan because she fits the mold of supporting actress. She plays a mother-from-hell role, she's AMERICAN (only Ruby Dee can also claim that) and your movie doesn't need to necessarily be this across-the-board nominee yet you can still be an unknown/newcomer to win. I see Ryan as winning and being one of those winners that goes on to a stable career, but one which never really makes her a big star. I hope Swinton can pull it off though. But really it was a very eenie-meenie-miney-moe type situation.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jon Capobianco, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Predicted Winner: Diablo Cody
My Vote: Brad, Jan and Jon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Predicted Winner: The Coen Bros
My Vote: Sarah Polley


I can't help but think Anderson is going to surprise here, don't you? Okay, maybe you don't, but I do. Alas, I'm sticking with the Coens.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Seamus McGarvey, Atonement
Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men
Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Robert Elswit, There Will be Blood

Predicted Winner: Janusz Kaminski
My Vote: Roger Deakins (for No Country)

I'm just going out on a limb here. Like Supporting Actress this could go to any one. I have the unfortunately feeling that Deakins will split (he deserves to win for No Country and not Assassination, but that's just me I think) and I'm not sure There Will Be Blood includes enough obvious "hey, look at me!" moments. Hmmm. We'll see.

BEST EDITING
Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum
Juliette Welfing, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jay Cassidy, Into the Wild
"Roderick Jaynes", No Country for Old Men
Dylan Tichenor, There Will Be Blood

Predicted Winner: Dylan Tichenor
My Vote: "Roderick Jaynes"


Consider this just one consilation prize for There Will Be Blood (see below) and a respite from seeing the Coen Bros on stage one more time.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Arthur Max, Beth A Rubino, American Gangster
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, Atonement
Dennis Gassner, Anne Pinnock, The Golden Compass
Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Shiavo, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Jack Fisk, Jim Erickson, There Will be Blood

Predicted Winner: Fisk and Erickson
My Vote: Greenwood and Spencer

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Albert Wolsky, Across the Universe
Jacqueline Durran, Atonement
Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Marit Allen, La Vie en Rose
Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Predicted Winner: Jacqueline Durran
My Vote: Jacqueline Durran

BEST MAKE-UP
Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald, La Vie en Rose
Some People, whatever
Ve Neill, Martin Samuel, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Predicted Winner: Lavergne and Archibald
My Vote: Lavergne and Archibald

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dario Marianelli, Atonement
Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner
James Newton Howard, Michael Clayton
Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille
Marco Beltrami, 3:10 to Yuma

Predicted Winner: Marianelli
My Vote: Marianelli or Giacchino...?

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Raise it Up", August Rush
"Happy Working Song", Enchanted
"So Close", Enchanted
"That's How You Know", Enchanted
"Falling Slowly", Once

Predicted Winner: "Falling Slowly"
My Vote: "Falling Slowly"

BEST SOUND MIXING
Scott Millan, David Parker, Kirk Francis, The Bourne Ultimatum
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter Kurland, No Country for Old Men
Randy Thom, Michael Semantick, Doc Kane, Ratatouille
Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Jim Stuebe, 3:10 to Yuma
Kevin O'Connor, Greg P Russell, Peter J Devlin, Transformers

Predicted Winner: the Transformers crew
My Vote: The No Country folk

BEST SOUND EDITING
Karen M Baker, Per Hallberg, The Bourne Ultimatum
Skip Lievsay, No Country for Old Men
Randy Thom, Michael Silvers, Ratatouille
Matthew Wood, There Will Be Blood
Mike Hopkins, Ethan van der Ryan, Transformers

Predicted Winner: Wood
My Vote: Not sure. Wood or Lievsay? Or the bombastics of Transformers?

Because I think There Will Be Blood is a great example of the art of sound editing and they like giving this category to best picture nominees here.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Michael L Fink, Bill Westonhofer, Trevor Wood, The Golden Compass
John Knoll, Hal T Hickel, Charlie Gibson, John Frazier, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Scott Farrar, Scott Benzar, Russell Earl, John Frazier, Transformers

Predicted Winner: The Transformers gang
My Vote: The Transformers gang

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up

Predicted Winner: Ratatouille
My Vote: Ratatouille

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Beauford (Israel)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
Katyn (Poland)
12 (Russia)

Predicted Winner: Katyn
My Vote: n/a

BEST DOCUMENTARY
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

Predicted Winner: No End in Sight
My Vote: I've only seen Sicko

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Freeheld
La Corona
Salim Baba
Sari's Mother

Predicted Winner: Freeheld
My Vote: n/a

BEST ANIMATION SHORT
Even Pidgeons Go To Heaven
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
My Love
Peter and the Wolf

Predicted Winner: Peter and the Wolf
My Vote: n/a

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
At Night
The Mozart of Pickpockets
The Substitute
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman

Predicted Winner: The Substitute
My Vote: n/a

{fin}

7 comments:

RC said...

i look foward to your follow up, obviously many of your predictions were dead on.

adam k. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
adam k. said...

Yeah and also many of them were wrong.

This time I am superior in retrospect! Mwahahahahaha

adam k. said...

But really, everything about the world is okay because BOTH Tilda Swinton AND "Falling Slowly" won. I am in heaven.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Yeah, I don't care that I was wrong because Tilda won!!

Anonymous said...

For first time in years I'm glad about the results to the Academy Awards... Everyone deserves the Oscar, especially for Marion Cotillard (One of the best female performances I've even see in years)

I prefer There will be blood or Sweeney todd (That's so bad) but No country for old men is good, better than Michael Clayton and atonement

In Supporting Actress I prefer the great Cate but Tilda is good in MC (The best thing of the film alongside Tom Wilkinson)

patrick said...

just saw no country for old men, it's unassumingly unconventional yet (thankfully) never over-the-top. the Coen bros. deserve their Oscars; well done indeed.